Meanwhile, in the region, Iran’s strategy is clear: weaken adversaries, commandeer vital locales, and assert its regional authority. As part of this strategy, Iran-backed militias continue targeting U.S. forces — which have been stationed in Iraq since 2014 and Syria since 2015 to aid in operations against ISIS known as Operation Inherent Resolve. These militias mostly use drones, rockets, and in some cases, short-range ballistic missiles.This approach by Iran does more than ruffle its immediate neighbors and extend beyond localized impacts; it upsets the foundational balance crucial for broader regional stability.

The implications of such a strategy are twofold: it opens pathways for extremist groups to gain footholds, and it intensifies the already simmering tensions.Iran-backed militias in southern Syria are known to be involved in the drug war against Jordan, providing support and weapons to drug traffickers. This not only fuels the conflict in the region but also poses a significant threat to the stability and security of Jordan, as it struggles to combat the drug trade and its associated acts of terrorism. Iran’s backing of the Houthi rebels in Yemen exemplifies this. It has not only escalated regional tensions but has also triggered security concerns along the vital maritime routes of the Red Sea, showcasing Iran’s malign influence and its repercussions on international peace and security.

Concurrently, Iran capitalizes on the Palestinian issue as a strategic tool to bolster its sway and further its geopolitical agenda across the Middle East. By stoking protests and sowing instability in neighboring countries, Iran seeks to undermine regional competitors, seize critical strategic positions, and cement its status as a dominant regional force. It stirs up discord in predominantly Shia areas of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait, as well as in vulnerable regions like Jordan and Israel. Such manoeuvres are integral to Iran’s wider strategy of expanding its influence, confronting rival powers, and claiming key strategic territories to reinforce its authority within the Middle Eastern sphere.While Iran continues to make provocative moves in the region, it temporarily puts its nuclear ambitions on hold to avoid an unintentional airstrike by the United States or Israel.Overall, Iran’s strategic regional engagement serves to undermine its rivals and disrupt the essential equilibrium needed for stability.

In an era where religious identity has become increasingly prominent, the challenges of integration and religious expression faced by second and third-generation Muslims in Western Europe resonate with young Muslims in the Middle East, who may view them as inadvertent role models amidst their own identity struggles. The schisms within Islam, particularly between Sunni and Shia branches, have historic roots that now manifest in renewed conflict potential, with a Shia-dominated Iraq potentially inspiring activism among Shia minorities in other Middle Eastern nations.

The allure of radical Islam rises amidst the ruins of economic despair and political disenfranchisement. Young Muslims, cast adrift by governments that cannot see them or speak for them, are attracted to extremism as a means of gaining a dangerous reputation. As a result of the enduring conflicts in the area, terrorist groups are able to breed there. Insidious and opportunistic radical entities emerge, exploiting the desolation of a generation lost to disillusionment, seizing the turmoil and utilizing it to their advantage. Differences over religion and ethnicity also will contribute to future conflict, and, if unchecked, will be a cause of regional strife.

The economic downturn following the Covid-19 pandemic lingers and has sparked increasing civil discontent and countermeasures across the region, with notable impacts in Algeria, Egypt, and Iraq. The decline is largely attributed to the dwindling state services, which are further complicated by reduced budgets and an increasing population. A particular issue in Cairo is the acute water shortage that exacerbates the food crisis in Egypt, which in turn drives up the cost of essential food items. The situation in Jordan is equally dire, with a severe shortage of water being faced by the country.