By Sayed Ghoneim,
Part of my last strategic paper; the topic of the lecture which I’ll present on 5th of July, titled “Superpower States’ National security Strategies and Their Possible Impacts on East Asia Region”, pages 16, 18 and 19.
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7. Main Global & Regional Incidents
7.1. Spread of Terrorism and violent extremism mainly in Middle East & North Africa, in addition to Central & Southeast Asia and gradually in West and South Europe.
67 international terrorist organizations are proscribed under the Terrorism Act 2000, in addition to other terrorist groups proscribed by specific regions. ISIS is the most common international threat and Boko Haram is the largest threat as a cause of deaths.
31 Terrorist groups are located in MENA and branched in Southeast Asia.
17 of these Terrorist groups are proscribed after 2014. Several terrorist groups pledged allegiance to ISIS declaring their areas Islamic states.
8. Impacts:
8.1. Internationally:
8.1.9. Terrorism:
8.1.9.1. ISIS and its loyalist groups will be defeated in MENA, but defeating these groups doesn’t mean eliminating terrorism. Terrorists will increase their qualitative suicidal operations, especially in case of continuing funding.
8.1.9.2. They’ll direct their elements to increase sectarian and ethnic division in their area of activities. More pressure on ISIS and other terrorist groups their elements will have to do the following:
• The defeated armed groups in Syria and Iraq continue joining the armed groups in Yemen, Egypt and Libya. However; regional and international pressure on them in MENA will continue.
• They’re also forced to a prompt flee eastwards to the Central Asian region, specifically to Afghanistan and Southeast Asia to Philippines and Indonesia. The will do so to either join al-Qaeda as an option which is awaited by its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to discipline the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi for his mutiny in 2013; or confronting al-Qaeda in Afghanistan trying to seize some strategic towns, rebuilding its own capabilities in a more suitable environment, which is considered the most likely option.
• Fleeing or could be infiltrating some terrorist elements to Europe, especially North Mediterranean states as refugees, using fake passports of dead Syrian persons, or by illegal immigration.
