According to the numerical and qualitative military comparison and the comparison of comprehensive national powers between Russia and Ukraine, Russia’s victory over Ukraine was supposed to be quick; however, if it has happened, it would not mean that it’s a victory over other neighboring country, such as Poland. So, how it would be a victory over the entire NATO countries or the US, which neither of them used its forces in the war against Russia.
I wrote before that the real victory for Russia over the US is by extracting the US hegemony over the world order or, at least, forbed the US the tools that enable it to dominate the world order and its hegemony over international resolution, in the time, the Russian-Ukrainian war has nothing to help in this matter. This extended war between Russia and its weaker neighbor is only a continuation of a certain phase of the Russian national security strategy drafted by Putin by end of 2015, “restoring Russian prestige”, which began since Putin took over his resposibilities few years before the issuance of his strategy; this phase is not over yet. As for Russia’s wresting of hegemony over the world system and hegemony over international decisions, it is another matter, and it does not take place in these wars on the ground with a neighboring country.
There is no doubt that the ongoing war has repercussions that affect the world and hit its countries in terms of their economic, food and energy security, and Russia, as the most involved in this war, is the first to grind between the gears of these repercussionsspecially the economic field. On the other hand, we will find fierce wars on the part of the US to maintain the two sides of hegemony (the world order and the international resolutions) against both of China and Russia in various fields.
Neither China nor Russia can extract hegemony from the US unless they possess six major tools more than the US, or at least equal to it, which has not happened yet; economic and technological powers and forming strong political, economic and military alliances form the biggest role to achieve this practical path.
I assume that there six main tools that enable any of the superpowers to achieve hegemony over the global order and dominate the international resolutions during the current decade (2021-2030) which are, at least, as follows:
1. Maritime and military sovereignty over the oceans by means of naval fleets and aircraft carriers, and the ability to direct them to secure national interests in the (15) regions all over the world.
2. Space and cyber sovereignty.
3. Excellence in the production of highly developed technology (Know How Technology).
4. The capabilities of diplomatic and security maneuvers, that enabling the implementation of imposing sanctions, and granting aids.
5. The enormous economic capabilities that featured with “diversity – sustainability – competitive capabilities – the strength, cohesion and dominance of the country’s currency globally – …”.
6. The strategic means of globalization dominance, such as (the global Internet – Google, YouTube, social media – purchase cards “Visa – Master, etc.” – …).
Even at the regional level, the global hegemony does not accept the hegemony of another major power over its regional surroundings, as no region can be treated as a separate part of the world. Therefore, we note that the United States always try to forbed China the opportunity to dominate the regional order of Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, or others. It does not allow Russia to dominate Eastern Europe, including the Baltic, the Black Sea, the Balkans, the Mediterranean, or Central Asia, or others, until the United States guarantees the consolidation of its global hegemony.
These all make me see that the features of the re-formulation of the world order or the change of the dominant powers or their participation in it, and the hegemony of international decisions is not related to the Russian war in itself on Ukraine.
MG(ret). Dr. Sayed Ghoneim
Fellow, Nasser’s Higher Military Academy