In my opinion, China may use its military power if 4 red lines are crossed.

In general, People’s Republic of China will not use its military force outside the South China Sea, because it is completely incompatible with China’s global strategy, which relies on its economic, technological and cultural piwers as the main pillars to achieve it.

However, China may use its military power in its region if four red lines are crossed as follows:

1. The state of the direct threat to the entity of the Chinese state, its capabilities, and what might threaten the ruling Communist Party.

2. Threatening (One China Policy), such an attempt to gain independence by Taiwan.

3. In case of trying to tighten direct control over the South China Sea by rival powers, led by the United States, Japan and their allies.

4. In case of any serious successful steps towards the unification of the two Koreas, in a way that maximizes China’s threat from the south, that enable shifting of US forces from South Korea to North Korea at China’s borders.

Dr. Sayed Ghoneim
PhD in Political Science
Fellow, Nasser Higher Military Academy, Egypt
Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defense Affairs, UAE

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