Jaber Mohamed Al Shuaibi, Emirati Researcher in Geopolitical Issues

08 July 2020

The Turkish intervention in Libya causes chaos in this Arab country, and perpetuates Ankara’s exploitation of the advantages that Libya enjoys; which fuels regional tension, and requires the world to prepare to face the worst possibilities in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey seeks to implement geopolitical concepts in its expansionist policies, hoping to restore (Ottoman dreams) that will not be realized.

Within the framework of the offensive policy pursued by Turkey in Syria, and which it is now using in Libya, Ankara is now recruiting about 15,000 mercenary militias, to ensure that its opinion is imposed on any final outcome of the current situation in Libya, so that matters are resolved in favor of the “Muslim Brotherhood” who support The Government of National Accord, the ideological link that unites the Ottoman fez and Fayez al-Sarraj, will serve as a bridge in achieving the long-term goals of the Neo-Ottomanism. The paradox, here, occurs when Turkey objected to Western intervention in Libya at the beginning of the revolutions of the “Arab Spring”, and it failed to support the NATO military campaign, until May 2011. It now seemed clear, Turkey’s future intentions to make Libya a dependent power and a promising market for the Turkish economy, which it is trying to single out as a regional power. In addition to the announcement by Turkish officials of the demand to provide compensation for projects stalled before the beginning of the “Arab Spring”, and the acquisition of deals for the reconstruction of Libya, and others.

Turkey’s attempt to gain influence and a new strategic depth in the African continent and neighboring Egypt, one of the Arab centers of gravity, which is militarily superior to Turkey, may lead to igniting a conflict between several countries in the region, and Turkey realizes that the cities of Sirte and Jufra are a red line for Egyptian national security, given the two cities are geographically close to the Egyptian border.

Also, the city of Sirte alone contains 80% of the total Libyan oil, of which 85% is exported to the European Union countries, and this raises European concern. Erdogan will not hesitate to use Libyan oil to manipulate global oil prices, or to form a new hotbed of terrorism in Libya, which is closer to Europe, because of Turkey’s exploitation of the militias of “the Free Syrian Army” in its invasion of Libya, those who wish to travel, as refugees, to Europe. France and the European Union countries will not kick Turkey out of NATO, given its important geographical location in regard to European supplies, but severe economic and political sanctions will be imposed on it, because the interests of these countries are not to perpetuate the state of chaos in Libya. Turkey sought to exploit the Libyan crisis, and supported “the Muslim Brotherhood”, as an extremist ideology that crosses geographical borders that led to the destabilization of the Libyan interior, and that the Turkish intervention would be limited, geographically and temporally, with the same limitations as its diplomatic and economic capabilities and level of development, as a medium-sized country with zero trust between it and the countries of the region, and with its constant need for the support of the superpowers, perhaps even USA and Russia together. However, will the Arab regimes confront the interventions of regional powers through action and required coordination?