https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-a-e-has-been-secretly-carrying-out-attacks-on-iran-f1745a0d
Is this possible?
First: In principle, it’s possible. The UAE has a clear strategic motive for such an action, feeling that Iran is targeting its economy and internal security. It has declared its right to retaliate against Iranian strikes and possesses the capabilities to carry them out. As we all know, the UAE is known for its ability to conceal its actions.
The UAE possesses a sophisticated air force, significant intelligence capabilities, and deep military cooperation with the United States and Western countries, in addition to its close ties with Israel.
Therefore, the idea of launching limited, undeclared strikes is not out of the question.
Second: What might make me doubt this is that the specific details in the WSJ report cannot be confirmed. The report relies primarily on informed sources and unofficial leaks. Even Reuters, when it addressed the issue, stated, to my knowledge, that it could not independently verify the claims.
Therefore, it might be partially true, or part of a psychological warfare campaign. It could also be a deliberate leak intended to deter Iran, as my analysis suggests that Iran has transformed the UAE from a mere theater of operations in this conflict into an outright enemy. This may therefore be an attempt to demonstrate that the Gulf states are no longer mere spectators, at a time when a major Gulf power like Saudi Arabia is hesitant to confront Iran militarily. The timing of the leak aligns with the recent public display of Egyptian air combat forces, despite their long-standing presence in the UAE.
This could contribute to increased pressure in US-Iranian negotiations, or even prepare public opinion for a broader escalation.
Consequently, even if some operations did occur, their release now may be part of managing the media and political conflict.
Therefore, while the principle of a UAE launching an undeclared strike against Iran is plausible, given its capabilities, motives, and the surrounding circumstances, the details of the report lack confirmation and rely on leaks. The very act of publishing the report itself could be a leak, part of a broader strategy to manage the conflict and its media and political impact.
