First: The first stage (the comprehensive attack):
Duration:
From February 24 to early April 2022.
Features and Procedures:
The Russian forces adopted the method of blitzkrieg, carrying out a quick comprehensive attack on all confrontations on four axes: from the East in the Donbass region, from the North in Kharkiv, from the south in Kherson, and in the deep west towards the capital, Kyiv.
The Russian forces were deployed from three directions: North and East from Russia, West from Belarus, and South from the Crimea Peninsula.
The General Command of the Russian Armed Forces clearly underestimated the Ukrainian forces capabilities and performance. They also underestimated both international and regional situations and the international expected rection. The dispersal of the efforts of the Russian forces was also noted in addition to the wrong usage and deployment of the Russian forces, the weakness of command and control, the poor logistics plans, and the deterioration of the performance of the Russian ground and air forces.
All of the above led the Russian forces to incurre heavy losses in lives, weapons and equipment, which led to the faltering of their advance to a very large degree.
Second: The second stage (focusing of efforts):
Duration:
From 07 April 2022 April until July 2022.
Features and Procedures:
The Russian forces shifted to the conventional method of fighting by withdrawing from Kyiv and its surroundings, concentrating on the East (Donbass region) and continuing to hold on to the captured lands in the South with the continuation of attempts to the full capture of the shore of the Sea of Azov.
Russian forces are working to take advantage of their previous mistakes committed during the first phase, by concentrating efforts and taking care of flowing and securing their logistics and mobilizing and concentrating all possible means of fire, which led to the forces’ advance slowly and naturally in relation to the capabilities of the forces and the size of losses, where the Russian forces succeeded in seizing only three small cities within three months, but they are considered important cities in exchange for the depletion of the Russian forces and the infliction of big losses they suffered in this phase as well.
Third: The awaited third phase (transfer of efforts and continuation of traditional fighting):
Duration:
From July 2022 until….”
Features and Procedures:
Three main possible scenarios for the Russian forces to adopt as next:
- Shifting the Russian forces efforts to the South to seize Mykolaiv and Odessa, in order to achieve full control of all the Ukrainian overlooking on the Black Sea, while continuing the attack on the remaining cities of the Donbass region in the Donetsk state (Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka).
- Shifting efforts to the North and trying to target the remaining cities in Donbass, with a focus on the cities in the west to the Donbass region, while continuing to hold on to the captured cities and expanding to the South.
- Shifting efforts to the North and South together, while continuing the fight in the East to capture the remaining cities in Donetsk Oblast.
Sayed Ghoneim, Major General (retired) of the Egyptian Armed Forces
Ph.D. in political Science, Fellow, Nasser Higher Military Academy, Egypt
Chairman, Institute for Global Security & Defence Affairs (IGSDA-Online), UAE
